Frazier Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXUS66 KHNX 231158
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
358 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A strong winter storm system will continue to impact Central
California through this weekend. Portions of the San Joaquin
Valley and the Sierra Nevada Foothills may see moderate to heavy
rainfall rates at times with moderate to heavy snowfall rates
in the Sierra Nevada.

2. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Sierra
Nevada above 6,500 feet through 4 PM Tuesday. Accumulations of
10 to 24 inches are possible with up to 4 feet at the higher
elevations. Wind gusts could reach up to 50 miles per hour. The
probability of receiving 24 inches of snow by 10 PM Saturday is
55% for Tuolumne Meadows and 55% for Tioga Pass.

3. The probability of receiving at least one inch of rain by
Wednesday is 95% for Merced decreasing towards the south to 80%
in Fresno, 65% in Visalia, and 45% in Bakersfield.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley on Friday were
generally around 7 to 12 degrees above climatological averages
for this time of the year. This was due to an upper ridge of
high pressure along with strong low level warm air advection
ahead of the approaching system. This warming was most evident
in the southern SJ Valley due to downsloping flow. Bakersfield
was 80 degrees on Friday, which was 16 degrees above average
and tied the record high for the date.

Precipitation has overspread much of the district north of Kern
County as of this writing. Rainfall amounts have generally been
around one third to one half of an inch thus far across mainly
Merced, Mariposa, and Madera Counties. The snow level is near
6500 feet around Yosemite NP rising up to around 7000 feet near
Sequoia NP. The moisture plume is currently located along the
central CA coast with radar imagery showing strong orographic
enhancement as it reaches the Sierra. Precipitation will shift
south through the morning with high resolution guidance keeping
showers going mainly across the mountains through the afternoon
and into the evening.

Ensembles keep the deep upper low spinning just off the Pacific
Northwest coast through Tuesday. Precipitation looks to take a
break across central CA on Sunday with just a few light showers
generally. Ensemble members focus on Monday for the next round
of moderate to heavy precipitation. This activity looks to last
into Tuesday as the upper low finally fills and shifts inland.
Ensembles indicate a short wave ridge may shift over central CA
on Thanksgiving for a dry day. But they also show a weak upper
low just upstream that brushes the coast with precipitation on
the day after.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of mountain obscuring IFR conditions in precipitation
across the Sierra Nevada. Areas of MVFR conditions across the
San Joaquin Valley. VFR conditions will prevail across the
Kern County Desert.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES..
On Saturday November 23 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Kern County. Burning
Discouraged in Fresno, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare
Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ323-326>331.

&&

$$

DCH

weather.gov/hanford