Frazier Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

722
FXUS66 KHNX 251035
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
235 AM PST Thu Dec 25 2025

KEY MESSAGES...

1. Another push of moisture with moderate to heavy rainfall expected
to start affecting the region early this morning. The greatest
concentration of precipitation will focus first between Mariposa,
Merced, and Fresno Counties. Activity will move southeast
across the rest of the area through as 3pm today. Additionally,
high confidence of flooding across the foothills with continued
rainfall. Soils are saturated, resulting in excessive runoff.

2. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory areas impacted by downed
trees or power outages, moderate confidence. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 40% probability of
winds gusting to 30 mph from Merced to Hanford, will also topple
trees and move loose objects.

3. High confidence of heavy snow above 7000 feet, with snow load
impacts on roofs in the high Sierra. Travel will be impossible with
60 mph winds and whiteout conditions.

4. Thunderstorms are expected today (Christmas Day) and Friday
across the Joaquin Valley.

DISCUSSION...

A short reprieve in heavier precipitation for much of the
forecast area is coming to an end early this morning as a
tightened band of colder clouds on GOES IR is increasing radar
returns near Monterrey Bay. Similar PWATs (GOES) near 1" as
yesterday`s RAOBs seen within this northeast to southwest
oriented line will increase heavy precipitation chances from
west to east across the forecast area this morning.

River and areal flooding will be highest concern as recent heavy
rainfall saturated soils and triggered initial rises at some
river gages. A higher than normal snow level near 6,000` with
enhanced low level moisture flux resulting in 100% HREF
probabilities above 2,000`+ for 1.5"+ of QPF over the next 24
hours. While confidence is high for hourly and subhourly QPF
thresholds remaining below burn scar thresholds, the last few
runs of the HRRR, one of the more moist members of the 25.00Z
HREF, tease near threshold values for the Salt 14-2 burn scar
this morning although less so at the Garnet, Basin, and Coffee
Pot burn scars through the early afternoon. Besides storm
chances, steep low level lapse rates and associated instability
may also provide increased subhourly rainfall amounts.
Therefore, will be additional forecast detail to monitor.
Otherwise, strong winds and heavy snow with HREF probabilities
for 30" of snowfall in 24 hours hours over Tioga Pass, Mammoth
Peak, and John Muir will cause whiteout conditions in the high
Sierra.

Flood Watches remain in effect across most of the forecast area
through Friday evening as a Winter Storm Warning continues for the
High Sierra into Friday night.

The Upper level low driving today`s increased rainfall seen
occluding off the coast on GOES upper level water vapor imagery
persists meager moisture flux advection through Friday, lingering
mostly orographically-driven precipitation chances through Friday.
Eventually the global pattern progresses the trough east into the
Desert Southwest through the weekend, reducing higher
precipitation chances locally. Subsequent widespread colder
temperatures with mid to upper 30 overnight lows Sunday into
Monday and Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday December 25, 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera,
Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park
Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or
to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for CAZ300>339.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ333>339.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ300>304-308-
309-313-314-316>318-324-332.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ323-326>331.
&&

$$

public...JAR

weather.gov/hanford